Ensemble machine learning models trained on 1.5M play-by-play rows. Calibrated probabilities that find the edge sportsbooks miss.
Most prediction tools give you a pick and say "trust me." Benchie AI gives you calibrated probabilities, transparent confidence levels, and the math behind every number.
When we say 65%, we mean it. Isotonic regression calibration ensures our probabilities match real-world outcomes.
Predictions update at 24 checkpoints throughout every game. As context changes, our models adapt instantly.
Every pick is logged before tip-off. Wins and losses both. No cherry-picking, no retroactive claims.
Points, rebounds, and assists are all highly correlated with minutes played. We predict playing time first, then predict stats — because a player projected for 25 minutes produces very differently than one expected to play 38.
Jayson Tatum dropped 30 points in just 24 minutes against Utah on Jan 5, 2025 — then sat the entire 4th quarter in a blowout. His season average? 26.9 PPG in 35.3 minutes. If you predicted his props using the season average without accounting for a blowout game script, you'd be 10 points off. We model the game script first, predict expected minutes, then forecast stats.
Stars, starters, rotation, and deep bench have different minutes floors and ceilings. A 4th-tier bench player might see 30 minutes in a blowout.
The NBA's 65-game rule forces stars to play through sub-optimal conditions. Haliburton rushed back from a hamstring to protect his supermax eligibility. We track these dynamics.
Stars get pulled early in blowouts — bench players gain minutes. Our model adjusts for projected score differential in real-time.
When a teammate is out, remaining players absorb their minutes and usage. We model the redistribution effect on opportunity.
Starters play heavier minutes in the postseason. Close playoff games push stars to 42+ minutes — our models know this and adjust props accordingly.
A conversational AI backed by 1.5M play-by-play rows. Ask about matchups, trends, recent performance, or upload a screenshot of your parlay. Every answer is grounded in real data.
Ask about player matchups, shooting splits, pace impact, or historical performance in plain English.
Upload a screenshot of your bet slip. Benchie reads it, evaluates each leg, and grades your parlay.
Every response cites actual play-by-play data, game logs, and model predictions. No vibes, just evidence.
Upload a screenshot from DraftKings, FanDuel, or any sportsbook. Benchie reads every leg, runs each through the probability engine, and grades your parlay with correlated odds — because same-game legs are not independent.
A four-stage pipeline transforms raw NBA data into actionable, calibrated probability estimates.
1.5M rows of NBA play-by-play data spanning multiple seasons. Every possession, every substitution, every context signal.
200+ engineered features capture player role, usage patterns, blowout adjustments, matchup dynamics, and in-game momentum.
Five model types compete and combine via stacking. Each trained across 24 game checkpoints and 3 player tiers for granular accuracy.
Raw predictions are converted to probabilities using empirical residual distributions and isotonic regression. The result: a probability you can trust.
Backtested on 50,000 out-of-sample snapshots with real sportsbook prop lines. Early-game predictions (Q1-Q2) are the true test of model strength.
Backtest results are based on historical data and do not guarantee future performance. Break-even at standard -110 odds is 52.38%.
Everything you need to analyze NBA player props — from pre-game research to live in-game tracking, all backed by the same ML pipeline.
Upload a screenshot or build manually. Per-leg probabilities, correlated parlay odds, EV calculation, risk grade, and weakest leg identification.
BuiltTrack any player during a live game. P(Over) updates at 24 checkpoints as the game unfolds. Watch probability shift in real-time.
BuiltAutomated daily picks published before tip-off. Every win and loss tracked transparently. Running ROI, hit rates by tier, full accountability.
BuiltFour prop markets, each with its own ensemble of models trained on target-specific data.
Benchie AI is being built in public. Follow the journey from model training to launch.
Follow @benchieai for daily NBA player prop analysis, model updates, and launch news.
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